Many nonprofits keep an eye on website numbers like pageviews, email signups, new blog posts posted, or event registrations. But fewer organizations take an extra step that helps you actually learn from those numbers: making a forecast.
A forecast is just a quick prediction about what you expect to happen next–nothing fancy, no crystal ball required. And counterintuitively, it’s often most useful when you have no idea what to expect.
If you haven’t been tracking a number closely, your estimate might feel like a wild guess. That’s completely fine; many first forecasts are. The goal isn’t to prove you’re a psychic. The goal is to give your future self something to react to.
Let’s say you’re trying to increase event registrations. Start by looking at how many people typically sign up each month. Then estimate what might happen next month based on the extra promotion you’re planning.
Your forecast might look something like this:
- Last month: 45 event registrations
- Additional outreach: email reminder plus a homepage feature
- Forecast for next month: 60 registrations
That estimate doesn’t need to be perfect, or even particularly carefully thought out. It just needs to exist.
What comes next is the important part: When the month ends, go back and see what actually happened. Did registrations land close to your forecast? Fall short? Jump past it?
This comparison creates a powerful learning loop: we did X, we expected Y, and here’s what actually happened. Suddenly, the actual number isn’t just a number–it’s a clue. Maybe the extra promotion worked and you’ll repeat it. Maybe it barely moved the needle, which tells you it’s worth trying something different next time. Either way, you learned something. (Which beats staring at a dashboard and shrugging.)
Without a forecast, it’s easy to glance at a number and move on with your day. With one, you’re much more likely to pause and think about what the result actually means. Which is a nice change from “let’s just see what happens.”
Over time, those small moments of reflection make your nonprofit website strategy smarter, more intentional, and a little less mysterious.
Deep Dive
Turning your metrics into a nonprofit website measurement plan | Nonprofit Website Insider
This article from the Nonprofit Website Insider puts all of this into a broader context–from defining your goals and picking your metrics, to deciding how often you’re going to check in on what happened and who will take the lead.
How to set better website metrics for your nonprofit | Constructive
A guide to choosing website metrics that actually reflect your organization’s goals and audiences. It walks through how to align metrics with mission outcomes, not just traffic numbers, and offers a clear framework for deciding what’s worth tracking.
11 digital marketing KPIs every nonprofit should track | Candid
A helpful overview of common nonprofit digital metrics, including website traffic, online donations, and volunteer sign-ups. This piece is useful for teams deciding which numbers matter most when measuring progress toward their goals.